海南农业经济预警系统研究-农业经济管理专业论文.docxVIP

的系统工程。建立这样的预警系统，既有经济预警的一般分析，又有农业经济预警的 的系统工程。建立这样的预警系统，既有经济预警的一般分析，又有农业经济预警的 特殊分析，既有理论分析，又有实证分柝，既有科学性，又有实用性，既有历史分析， 又有检验分析，既有定性分析，又有定量分析。 关键词：海南农业警情警兆预警模型 AbstractThe Abstract The agricultural economy of early waming systems is a systems of agriculture future state test，fbrecasting abnormal extent and the scope of ha瑚timely preVentiVe measures Establishing the agricultural economy of early waming systems i s the obj ectiVe situation demands．China’s agricultural and rural economic deVelopment is at a new historical stage With the accelerated deVelopment of economic globalization process，especially af[er China’s accession to t11e WTO，Ddomestic agricultural markeCs to funher increase the ，J． openness of the intemational market of the impact on domestic agricultLIral production is also growing，Hainan obVious adVantages weakening Tropical Agriculture．Under such circumstances， reasonable adj ustment of agricultural policy and familiar with the domestic and international markets fbr agricuItural products to ensure that agricultural saf-ety and enhance ag“cultLlral competitiVeness and timely guide efrectiVe production operators aVoid market risks is one of the important managemem of Hainan a鲈icultural innoVation topics． Made a empirical争tudy of Hainan agricultural earIy waming system．First，AnaIysis 1 98 1—2004， Hainan agrjcultural economic deVelopment trends．and select Hainan agricultural economy of the 23 influential factors by Pricipal Componet method．Secondly， set up an agricultural early waming system by Systematic principles and methods of time—related analysis，meanwhile，stablish early waming models of agricultural product Thirdly，defection and comprehensiVe analysis of agrjcultural early waming system Finall y，proposed the establishment of agricultural economy of early waming systems Dif-ferent from the formal study methods，one new method is used in this dissertation． When setting up the agricultural economy of earIy warning systems，both 毛 The domesCic experts and the