寒区岩土工程冻融灾害机理及预报模型研究-防灾减灾工程及防护工程专业论文.docxVIP

Subject Subject ：Study on Mechanics and Forecast Model of Geotechnical Engineering Freezing—melting Hazard in Cold Region Specialty：Disaster Mitigation and Hazard Prevention Instructor：Yang Gengshe (Signatur“单牲 Name ：Pian Longjiang(Signature) Abstract Freezing—melting hazard is one of geotechnical engineering hazards in cold region, because of its complexity,many geotechnical engineering questions are unable to evaluate by the accurate mathematical model．This paper study basic characteristic and predi或ion model offreezing-melting hazard on cold region by the system theory way． Base the stud),to present catastrophology and Freezing-melting hazard，it is expatiated the significance of introducing the coIlcept of freezing·melting hazard．The neeessity have explained that studies on tleezing-melting hazard with the view of the system theory and two kinds of freezing—melting hazard system have s。t up。One is the system that based on district disaster system，the other is freezing-melting hazard entity system．On the foundation of the entity system，fuzzy mathematics prediction model fur freezing—melting hazard is given by the way of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation；provided tWO freezing-melting hazard prediction instances．One is qualitative prediction，the other is Quantification．This model Can be used in disaster evaluation in Feasibility for project and long-term prediction for freezing—melting hazard．GM(1，1)prediction model base the gray theory is given which include GM(1，1) prediction normal model，residual model，new information model and a instance iS given．This model be used for freezing—melting hazard monitoring and prediction。Last，the difference between grav theory GM(1，1)model and fuzzy mathematics prediction model for freezing—melting hazard is analyzed， Key word：Geotechnical engineering Freezing-melting hazard Prediction model Thesis ：Application base study Y Y 923044 西要错技夫擎 学位论文独创性说明 本人郑重声明：所呈交的学位论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及 其取得研究成果。尽我所知，除了文中加以标注和致谢的地方外，论文中不包含 其他人或集体已经公开发表或撰