国际石油期货价格与现货价格的互动关系研究-产业经济学专业论文.docxVIP

英文摘要Subject：The 英文摘要 Subject：The Research on The Relationship between Future Price and Spot Price of International Petroleum Speciality： lndustrial Economics Name： Sun Panfeng Instructor：Luo Jing(si ABSTRACT Petroleum is the”blood”of modem industry．With the further fast process of economic development，China’S dependence on foreign petroleum is going up，and sudden rise and sharp fall in the world petroleum price has brought adverse effects on the stable growth of our economy．we analyze the relationship between spot price and future price of international petroleum from the structure of petroleum price，accounting for their different effect On petroleum price． By time series analysis，descriptive statistics and data acquisition and processing，this paper studies the relationship between spot price and future price of international petroleum． Firstly,It analyzes the long term factors and short term of influencing petroleum price．At the same time，it discusses the cause of constant rising of recent petroleum price and studies these factors’different effects on spot price and future price to explain the importance of future price in the strucure of petroleum pirce．Secondly,the paper applys time series analysis to establish a VAR model and analyze it empirically to obtains the conclusion that the future market is effective and the function of price discovery model on the basis of the analysis．Lastly it concludes that China should establish its own future oil market． Keywords：Petroleum Price；Petroleum Spot Price；Petroleum Future Price； Relationship Paper types：Application of Basic Research III 学位论文创新性声明本人声明所呈交的学位论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得的研究成 学位论文创新性声明 本人声明所呈交的学位论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得的研究成 果。尽我所知，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢中所罗列的内容以外，论文中不包含其他 人已经发表或撰写过的研究成果；也不包含为获得西安石油大学或其它教育机构的学位 或证书而使用过的材料。与我一同工作的同志对本研究所做的任何贡献均已在论文中做 了明确的说明并表示了谢意。 申请学位论文与资料若有不实之处，本人承担一切相关责任。 论文作者签名： 学位论文使用授权的说明 本人完全了解西安石油大学有关保留和使用学位论文的规定，即：研究生在校攻读学 位期间论文工作的知识产权单位属西安石油大学。学校享有以任何方法发表、复制、公 开阅览、借阅以及申请专利等权利，同时授权中国科学技术信息研究所将本论文收录