海平面变化对东中国海工程水位推算影响的研究-港口、海岸及近海工程专业论文.docxVIP

摘要由于人类活动对地球系统的影响迅速扩大，全球变暖、海平面上升是20世纪以来 摘要 由于人类活动对地球系统的影响迅速扩大，全球变暖、海平面上升是20世纪以来 全球变化的重要特征之一。此外海平面变化还存在显著的节季变化特征，如渤海湾季节 变化幅度就达60em多。海平面的这种季节变化和长期变化将直接影响着工程水位推算 的科学性和精确性。本文对海平面变化对工程水位推算的影响进行了系统的探讨，主要 开展了下面一些工作：用随机动态模型对长期验潮资料分析中国沿岸海平面的季节变化 和长期变化：讨论海平面的季节变化和长期变化对设计水位和多年一遇极值水位推算的 影响；利用一种条件分布联合概率方法分析设计水位与校核水位：用POM攘型对渤、 黄、东海潮渡进行模拟：用POM模型模拟海平面上升对中国海潮波的影响缃POM模 型对天文潮与风暴潮进行数值模拟并推算多年一遇极值水位。通过上述统计和数值模拟 计算，得出东中国海海平面季节变化对设计水位的显著影响，而海平面长期变化对潮波 影响显著，从而显著地影响工程水位的推算。 关键词：东中国海；随机动态方法：海平面变化；POM模型；工程水位 AbstractThe Abstract The effeCt of human aetivity Oil earth system has been extensive．global warming and global sea levcl rise is one of the typical characters of global ehange over the past 20“century．Sea lgvel variation has seasonal period,for eXalnple the seasonal range of sea level variation in the Bohai Sea exceeds 60era．The sea level variation of both the seasonal and long term scale affects directly the caleulation of engineering,water level， such effect will be discussed in detail in this paper in the following aspect：the stochastic dynamic method is used to analyze the seasonal and 10n叠term sea level variation；how the seasonal and long term SiVa level variation affect the calculation of design water level and check water level；a ioint probability method with COIlditional distribution is used to calculate the design water level and cheek water level when sea．1evel rises；the tidal simulation in the Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea and Elist China Sea with POM：How the s髓 level rise affects the tidal WaVe in the study alea with p0M．then the design water level change is obtained after鼢level rise；the celestial tidal wave and storm is simulated 、“th POM and the check wllt盯level is obtained．With the above analysis and caleulation． it is concluded that mean sea level variation affects the tidal wave in the Eastern China Sea,and thell it affeets significantly the ealeulation ofdesign and cheek water level． Key Words：Eastern China Sea；stochastic clynamie method；蝴level variation；POM model；engineering wate