越南和泰国水稻产量预报研究-华南农业大学学报.PDF

26 3 Vol.26, No.3 　　　　　　　　　　　 　　　　　　　　　　　 　2005 7 Journal of South ChinaAgricultural University 　Jul.2005 1 1 2 1 刘锦銮, 何　健, 沙奕卓, 王惠英 (1 广东省气候与农业气 中心, 广东 广州510080;2 中国气 科学研究院, 北京 100081) :500 hPa , .11 , , 、., 、, . , 2002, 2%～5%, . :;;;; :S162.53　　　　　　:A　　　　　:1001-411X (2005)03-0001-04 Research on the rice yield forecast in Vietnam and Thailand 1 1 2 1 LIU Jin-luan , E Jian , S A Yi-zhuo , WANG ui-ying (1Guangdong Climate and Agrometeorology Center, Guangzhou 510080, China; 2 China Meteorological ScienceAcademy, Beijing 100081, China) Abstract:This paper analyzed the relationship between the rice yields of Vietnam and Thailand, and global monthly average temperatureof the seasurface and the heightof 500 hPa.To separate the trendsyield andme- teorologicalyield, eleven different statistical methods were adopted.According to relevantwidespread investi- gations, the regression modelsof different meteorologicalyield and thesea surface temperatureand the circula- tion were built up by using step regression method based on the coefficient.The result of the tendency yield and meteorologicalyield estimated through growth curvemethod of Vietnam and Thailand are preferable by sta- tistical testing.Based on the physical significanceof the regression model, theyield in 2002was predicted and the errorwas only 2%-5%.The results may be applied in practice. Key words:rice;yield;forecast;Vietnam;Thailand 　　 [ 1～3] ., , , , , , , , 20 ,. , [4] , , ., , , , 20 , 　:2004-02-14　　　　:刘锦銮(1965-), 男, 高级工程师;E-mail:ljl@