汇率理论演变与趋向研究-经济思想史专业论文.docx

摘 摘 要 汇率理论作为国际金融理论研究的核心课题，是国际经济学体系的重要组成 部分，其发展贯串着整个近代西方经济思想发展史，始终是西方国际经济学研究 的热点问题，新理论层出不穷。 汇率理论主要包含以下两个方面：一是汇率的决定。浮动汇率制度下剧烈波 动的汇率不仅影响到微观主体的利益，而且关系到国民经济的内外均衡。汇率的 决定、影响汇率变动的因素成为国际金融学者们研究的热点问题；二是汇率制度。 随着布雷顿森林体系的日渐衰落，对固定汇率制度、浮动汇率制度和中间汇率制 度进行比较的研究日益繁荣，尤其是发展中国家汇率制度选择的问题更是引起了 国际金融理论界的浓厚兴趣。 本文从西方经济思想史发展的角度，较为系统地研究汇率理论发展的原因， 分析汇率理论从产生以来的演变背景，评述各理论更替时的扬弃关系，全面深入 地认识汇率决定理论以及由汇率决定理论发展衍生出的汇率制度选择问题。结合 中国目前直接资本管制的现状和人民币最终实现资本项目下可自由兑换目标，在 充分研究汇率理论演变和发展趋向的基础上，对我国当前汇率制度改革的方向和 制度选择进行探讨，分析存在的难点，提出个人对于选择适合中国现实经济特征 汇率制度的看法意见。 关键词：汇率理论历史演变趋向制度选择” 中图分类号：F091．3 ABSTRACTAs ABSTRACT As a major concern that dominates the theories on international finance．Foreign exchange rate口ORE)。has always been an important part of the international economic system It traces its way through the history of western economic thought and invariably abounds with the“hot-spots”that override the international economic studies，giving rise to new theories in ever-increasing numbers FOREX theory involves two aspects．The first iS the determination of exchange rates．Drastic fluctuations of exchange rates under the floating exchange rate system have a direct impact on both the intcrests of microeconomic agents and internal and external equilibriums of the economy．Tbus．the determination of exchange rates and factors affecting exchange rates have become the predominant academic pursuits The other one iS the exchange rate system．What synchronizes the decline of the Bretton Woods System has been a gro谢ng interest in the comparative study of fixed interest rate system，floating exchange rate system and intermediate exchange rate system， particularly the options facing the developing countries，which appeal powerfully to the international academic community From the perspective ofwestern economic thought，this dissertation devotes major efforts to probe into the driving forces that have helped to shape the theoretic evolution of the exchange rates and the COntexts in which FOREX theories have been developing．as well as