加入WTO后我国货币政策中介目标的调整-金融学专业论文.docxVIP

摘要货币政策中介目标是在货币政策传导过程中设置的可供观测和控制的中间 摘要 货币政策中介目标是在货币政策传导过程中设置的可供观测和控制的中间 变量，服务于政策最终目标。由于各学派在货币政策传导机制上存在差异，相应 有不同的中介目标提出。凯恩斯学派主要倡导利率中介目标，而货币学派主张以 货币供应量为中介目标。此外，还有诸如银行信用规模、股票价格、汇率等目标 变量提出。 我国中介目标经历了由现金目标到贷款规模再到现行的货币供应量日标转 变的过程，其演变有现实性和必然性。不可否认，货币供应量目标在治理90年 代初严重的通货膨胀上功不可没，为我国经济做出了贡献。但面对近些年来经济 持续紧缩的现象，尤其是我国加入WTO后，随着金融发展程度的加深，货币供 应量目标受到种种挑战，越来越表现出其作为中介目标的弱适应性。 导致这一结果的原因是多方面的。与货币供应量目标紧密相连的调控主体、 中介主体、承载主体和市场载体在经济、金融发展中发生了很大变化，且自身发 展不完善，影响了目标效应的发挥。 入世过渡期内，由于我国各方面改革还处于逐步推进阶段，货币供应量目标 还将持续一段时间，但其效用弱化的趋势无法扭转。同时，加入WTO后，伴随 着改革的深入，利率最终会实现市场化。因此在其它中介目标存在较大局限情况 下。应遵循入世过渡期内逐步推进、阶段调整的方式，重点推进货币供应量向利 率中介目标的调整、转化，最终实现具有国际化标志的利率中介目标。现阶段， 我们要积极改革相关配套制度，顺应金融发展，渐进式推进利率中介目标的实现。 关键词中介目标货币供应量利率金融深化WTO AbstractThe Abstract The intermediate target is an intermediate variable in the transmission process of monetary policy,which call be observed and controlled，serving for the ultimate target． Its diversity lies on the different standpoints of transmission mechanism of monetary policy claimed by scholars．The Keynesians advocate interest rate target while the monetarists support money supply target to be the intermediate target．In addition，other intermediate variables are also proposed，such as bank credit，stock price，exchange rate，etc． In retrospect，the inmrmediate target varied from the cash target to the bank credit and then later to the current money supply target in China．And this process corresponded reasonably to the developing economy realities．At the beginning of 1 990s，the money supply target had performed meritorious effects on controlling the serious inflation，and made great contributions to the incmase of economy．However, the inadaptability of the money supply target has demonstrated notably more and more in the receut years，when it faced the continuous economy deflation．especially after China joined WTO，with financial deepening in financial mechanism．We Can say that the money supply target has been suffering from grim challenges， Certainly,the central bank,commercial banks，enterprises，fin