基于资本流动模型的货币政策产业效应研究-金融学专业论文.docxVIP

基于资本流动模型的货币政策产业效应研究-金融学专业论文.docx

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I I PAGE PAGE VI III III Abstract As one important issue of the asymmetric effect in monetary policy,The industrial effects of monetary policy,has been paid to close attention by decision makers and macro policy-makers. The industrial structure,which is reasonable or not,is directly related to the sustainable, healthy and harmonious development of national economy. Traditional theoretical studies are mostly analyzed the total effect of monetary policy on condition that monetary policy has the same effect and impact on the entire economy and inter-industry. However, in fact, this assumption is not fully reasonable. In recent years, more and more researchers have proved that monetary policy has different effects on different industries, but people have kinds of view on its mechanism and determinants because lack of empirical tests. So deep analysis of the formation mechanism of the asymmetric effect of monetary policy provides a theoretical basis to government for making monetary policy, and it’s also gives us a theoretical basis to play the function of adjusting industrial structure of monetary policy. In this paper, on basis of that the asymmetric effect in monetary policy should exist and refer to the general theory, firstly, we dig into this asymmetric effect theory of origins—capital flows between industries, so as to attempt to open the analysis theory of back-box. And then we analyze the transformation mechanism of industrial structure influenced by capital. Secondly, by referring to the Jeffrey WurgIer’s capital allocation model and linking Chinese industrial structure feature, we make efficiency model of industrial capital that involves Money supply、Industrial added value、Industrial fixed assets investment and Industrial sentiment index. Thirdly, we studied the first, second and third industry and used quarterly data from 2001 to 2010, the results showed that even by adjusting of the same Monetary Policy because of profit driven and risk-averse capital wil

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