面向应急疏散的基于二型模糊的路径选择行为建模及仿真-机械工程专业毕业论文.docxVIP

广东工业大学硕士学位论文AbstractIn recent years，due to the reasons such as natural and human factors，major disasters are causing around the world more frequently．Under such conditions，the influence of the incidents caused by large crowd evacuation problems are claimed highly academic attention Comparing with the traffic flowing research in evacuation planning and management， evacuees behavior research is a weaker areas in the study of current traffic management．Considering the evacuees as the main body in the process of the emergency evacuation， differencing in predicting and choosing the evacuated time，route and destination will directly result and determine different regional traffic flow’S guidance performanceAs evacuees’social psychology will change under different uncertainty levels and influent their decisions on choosing different evacuate routes，this paper will initially analyze the limitation of the traditional Logit model，i．e．it couldn’t clearly depict the evacuees’psychological behavior；and then，after analyzing the different uncertaintyinfluencing factors，modeling evacuees behavior based on Type—II fuzzy theory and applied to the improved dynamic traffic flow distribution model．Finally examined and validated by Guangzhou Tianhe road network．Specific working contents are as follows：First of all，illustrating the limitation of traditional Logit model in the route choosing behavior by using examples，then after considering the risk perception behavior model under the influence of traffic conditions，introduce the weighted value of the path complex based on the obtainments from Type—II fuzzy method．Afterwards，author will improve theLogit model SO that it could make a better description on evacuees’psychological behaviorin the processing of emergency evacuationSecond part will focus on the comparison and analysis on the Type-I fuzzy theory and Type--II fuzzy theory and a detail discussion on the Type--II fuzzy system in determining the evacuate route，the design of path compl