媒介国运论国家兴衰传播动力机制的模型建构-中国传媒报告.PDF

① 媒介国运论 ：国家兴衰传播动力机制的模型建构 廖卫民 （浙江理工大学文化传播学院，杭州 310018 ） [摘 要] 传播学大师伊尼斯对帝国兴衰中的媒介传播作用有过精辟的论证，但还留 有诸多未解的问题值得探讨。传播与国家命运之间具有耐人寻味的密切关系，其背后蕴含着 诸多内在规律，本文就是以“传播何以改变国家命运？”为研究命题，在复杂系统理论基础 上，构建了一个具有象征意味的“穹顶”模型以隐喻国家兴衰图景，从而为认识国运兴衰的 传播动力机制供了形象生动的图解。传播基础结构、传播渠道、传播媒介、传播内容以一 种内嵌式的结构托举起擎天支柱，将力量传达到国运穹顶兴衰显现的外部，这一理解模式形 象地表达出传播与国民性格、国家认同、国家管控、国家动员、国家战略、国家危机等因素 以及国家命运之间的内在关系。本论文还从数学模型推演的角度研究了国运兴衰传播动力机 制的数量关系规律，并概括归纳了主要传播动力类型和国家兴衰模式。 [关键词] 传播理论；国家命运；国家兴衰；动力机制；复杂系统；穹顶隐喻 Media Theory of National Fate: Constructing Models of Dynamic Mechanism of Communication in the Rise and Fall of Nations Liao Weimin （School of Culture Communication, Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, Hangzhou, 310018, China ） Abstract: Although Harold Innis revealed the fundamental role of media played in the rise and fall of empires, nations, civilization in his classical works, some questions still left for discussing. Communication and national fate have intriguing close relation, which contains some underlying rules, so that it can raise historical thinking. This paper focuses on the research question “how do communications affect national fate?”, and studies the secrets of human communication behind the phenomena of rise and fall of nations. By adopting analysis framework from the complex system, a model named as Dome of National Fate is established to provide vivid demonstration about the dynamic mechanism of communication. The communication infrastructure, the communication channels, the media and the content are constructed in an embedded form, elevating the pillars to support Dome of National Fate, bringing the force into the outside of the visual system of national fate. This model also demonstrates the intrinsic relations betwe