上海交通大学机械与动力工程学院工业工程与管理系生产计划与控制Chapter5lecture1 The newsboy model- Optimal Policy for Discrete Demand.pdfVIP

Production and Operation Managements Inventory Control Subject to Unknown Demand Prof. JIANG Zhibin Department of Industrial Engineering Management Shanghai Jiao Tong University Inventory Control Subject to Unknown Demand Contents • Introduction • The newsboy model • Lot Size-Reorder Point System; • Service Level in (Q, R) System; • Additional Discussion of Periodic-review Systems • Multiproduct Systems Introduction Sources of Uncertainties • In consumer preference and trends in the market; • In the availability and cost of labor and resources; • In vendor resupply times; • In weather and its effects on operations logistics; • Of financial variables such as stock prices and interest rates; • Of demand for products and services. Introduction Uncertainty of a quantity means that we cannot predicate its value in advance. • A department store cannot exactly predicate the sales of a particular item on any given day; • An airline cannot exactly predicate the number of people that will choose to fly on any given flight. How can these firms choose the number of items to keep in inventory or the number of flights to schedule on any given route? • Based on the past experience for planning; • Probability distribution is estimated based on historical data; • Minimize expected cost or maximize the expected profit when uncertainty is present. Introduction Some Examples • In the economic recession of the early 1990s, some business that relied on direct consumer spending, suffered severe losses. Sears and Macy’s department stores, long standing successes in American retail market made poor earning in 1991. • Several retailers enjoyed dramatic successes. 