棉花的价格趋势分析-金融工程专业毕业论文.docxVIP

PAGE PAGE IV 棉花的价格趋势分析 中文摘要 棉花的价格趋势分析 中文摘要 棉花在我国国民经济中占据着至关重要的地位，很多国家都将其作为重要的农作 物来种植。其是纺织行业的主要原料之一，棉籽还能够榨油、提取出棉籽蛋白等物质， 更多的应用还在开发之中。 由于棉花的价格关系到全国几千万棉农，以及大量企业的利益。所以防范棉花价 格大幅度波动，以及能够合理的预测到棉花的价格。有助于保障企业的正常运营以及 大量棉农的利益。 影响棉花的价格由很多方面，但是大致可分为宏观经济、棉花供需以及相关市场 方面影响三个方面。本文首先对于棉花进行简介，然后考虑棉花产业链的各个方面， 最终得出影响棉花价格的各个指标。再利用多元线性回归模型，找出变量之间的关系， 再通过逐步回归得出模型参数。还有，本文也使用了 GARCH 模型对棉花的历史价格 进行了时间序列分析，来预测棉花的价格。 通过以上两种方法预测的棉花价格对于市场具有一定的参考意义。 关键词：棉花；历史；价格；趋势分析；GARCH 作 者：嵇星晨 指导教师：王过京 英文摘要 棉花的价格趋势分析 The trend analysis of cotton price Abstract Cotton occupies a vital role in Chinas national economy, and it is also planted as an important crop in many countries. It is one of the main raw materials of textile industry, besides, cotton seed can also be used to crush oil, extract cottonseed protein and other substances. In addition to the above application. Because cotton prices influence the interests of tens of millions of farmers and a large number of enterprises across the country, it is very important to prevent large fluctuations in cotton prices and have the ability to reasonably predict the price of cotton. This will help to guarantee the normal operation of enterprises and protect the interests of a large number of farmers. There are many aspects affect the price of cotton, which can be roughly divided into macro, cotton supply and demand and the relevant markets. In this paper, we firstly give a brief introduction of cotton. Then we derive the various indicators which affect the cotton prices in consideration of all aspects of the cotton industry chain. At last, we find out the relationship between the variables using multiple linear regression model, and obtain model parameters through stepwise regression model. In addition, in this paper, we also predict the price of cotton using the GARCH model to conduct a time series analysis of the history of cotton prices. In conclusion, prediction of cotton priceshas certain reference meaning for the market through the above two methods. Keyword