考虑分布式电源的电力客户信用等级评价及反窃电研究-电气工程专业毕业论文.docxVIP

摘要 摘要 万方数据 万方数据 考虑分布式电源的电力客户信用等级评价及反窃电研究 摘要 近年来，随着电力市场改革的推进，分布式电源入网的放开、大用 户直购电的推广、节能减排政策的实施等，传统被动购电用户逐渐转变 为参与电力市场活动的主动用户。电力客户对电网经营风险的影响已不 仅仅局限于欠费、窃电问题上，还会直接影响到调度计划安排、设备检 修周期、调峰备用等辅助服务调用、节能减排限额等关系着电网运营成 本和经营收益的问题。电力公司亟需一套适应新形势的电力客户信用评 价体系，能够科学地准确地评估客户信用对电网经营风险的影响，为供 电企业增加电费回收、减少违规用电、优化配置资源、提高经营水平提 供理论依据。因此，本文提出了考虑分布式电源的电力客户信用等级综 合评价模型，创新性地提出了用户分布式发电并网电量、用户分布式电 源并网电能质量达标率、大用户直购电违约电量比、用户减碳配额完成 率等新指标，并采用基于灰色关联度的组合权重评价方法，有效地规避 了单一评价方法的片面性。 另一方面，我国的窃电问题依然严峻，分布式电源上网后将会给反窃 电工作带来新的挑战，增加电力营销部门工作压力和稽查成本。针对分布 式电源上网对配电网潮流的影响，本文提出了对传统台区线损率标杆值 的修正方案，从而为判断台区窃电严重程度提供理论基础。针对分布式电 源部分电量“自发自用”使得用户用电量隐蔽的问题，本文提出了相应的 解决方法，并以用户用电量异常为筛选标准在利用台区窃电严重程度阀 I 值缩小稽查台区的基础上进一步锁定窃电嫌疑用户，最后利用数据挖掘 手段确定用户是否存在窃电。该反窃电管理办法能高效准确地筛选出窃 电嫌疑用户，节省了相关稽查资源，降低了营销成本，实现营销风险管控。 关键词：分布式电源入网，电力客户信用等级评价，灰色关联度，台区 线损率标杆值，用电量异常，数据挖掘，反窃电 II Research on Electricity Customer’s Credit Rating and Anti- stealing Power Considering Distributed Generation ABSTRACT In recent years, with the advancement of the electricity market reforms, the liberalization of distributed generation (DG), the promotion of large consumers direct purchase of electricity, the implementation of energy-saving policies, the traditional passive electricity buyers gradually transformed into active participants in power market activities. The influence of electricity customer’s behavior on electric power company’s operating risk is not only confined to electricity arrears and stealing problems, but also related to dispatching plan, equipment maintenance cycle, calls of auxiliary services about peak regulation and reserve supply, energy-saving quotas, which are relevant to electric power company’s operating costs and income. It is urgent for electric power company to develop a set of power customer’s credit evaluation system under new circumstances, which can evaluate the impact of customer’s credit on electric power company’s management risk scientifically and accurately. Therefore, in order to control power grid marketing risk, the paper proposes a new customer c