20XX年市场预测与管理决策讲义.pptVIP

ES Ft = Ft-1 + α(Dt-1 - Ft-1) Example: α= 0.2, Let F1 = 1000 F2 = 1000 + 0 = 1000 F3 = 1000 + 40 = 1040 F4 = 1040 + 172 = 1212 F5 = 1212 - 82.4 = 1129.6 Periods 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Actual Demand 1000 1200 1900 800 1120 1350 ? ? Ft F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 ES Ft = Ft-1 + α(Dt-1 - Ft-1) Example: α= 0.2, Let F1 = 1000 F6 = 1129.6 - 1.92 = 1127.68 F7 = 1127.68 -44.46 = 1172.14 Similar to weighted moving average exponentially decreasing weights for all previous periods Periods 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Actual Demand 1000 1200 1900 800 1120 1350 ? ? Ft F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 # # 市场预测与管理决策Forecasting M