辽宁某地区短期负荷预测研究-电气工程专业论文.docxVIP

摘要 摘 要 I I 摘 要 随着我国坚强智能电网的迅速发展，电能质量问题、供电可靠性问题以及供 电效率问题越来越受到电力领域相关人员的关注，由此而来的电力负荷预测成为 电力系统的关领域研究的热点，尤其是短期负荷预测。能够相对精确预测大电网 或者区域电力系统未来几小时或者几天的电力负荷变化情况，为确定燃料供应计 划，提高供电部门经济效益有着重要的意义。 本文首先阐述了不同的负荷预测方法的原理及其优势与不足，在此基础 上 结合辽 宁地区 负荷的 特点， 考虑本 人有大 量的辽 宁铁岭 地区负 荷历史资 料，在导师的悉心指导下确定选择负荷分类的方法对辽宁铁岭地区的电力负 荷进行单独预测，然后再通过修正求和的方法求得总负荷。 各个区域的负荷都是由不同类型的用户构成的，而且在不同区域不同电 力用户所占的比例也不同。结合辽宁铁岭地区的实际情况，将总负荷分为三 班制连续生产类型负荷、日产夜休类型负荷、商业类型负荷、电气化铁路负 荷、季节性农业负荷、居民用电负荷以及其他类型负荷。在此基础上，分别 对不同类型的负荷进行预测，然后采用修正求和的方法求得总负荷预测值。 最后将提出的方法用于辽宁铁岭地区负荷预测，并将预测结果与实际负 荷进行比较，证实了该方法的可行性。 关键词 ： 短期；负荷预测；负荷分类；修正求和 II II Abstract With the rapid development of our country strong smart grid and the regional electric power market gradually established which become perfect, the competition between electric power enterprises is increasingly fierce, so the problem of benefit becomes the focus of the electric power enterprise. The power load forecasting become the hotspot in research of power system, especially the short-term load forecasting, which often can relatively accurately predict the power load change in the next few hours or a few days of large power grid or regional electric power system, in order to determine the fuel supply plan and improve economic efficiency of power supply department, which has important significance. At first, this paper expounds the principle and its advantages and disadvantages of the different methods of load forecasting. Combining the characteristics of the load in Liaoning province and considering I have a lot of load historical data of Liaoning Tieling area, under the guidance of tutor, choose the load classification method of individual projections for Liaoning Tieling area power load, which is then obtained total load by the method of fixed sum. The load of every region is constituted by different types of users, and in different areas the proportion of electricity users is different. Combined with the actual situation of Liaoning Tieling area, the total load is divided into three shifts continuou