不确定条件下开行固定车组重量分组列车适用条件研究.docxVIP

不确定条件下开行固定车组重量分组列车适用条件研究 陈崇双J王慈光-杨运贵2,薛 锋I 西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院.四川成都610031 : 2.中国民航飞行学院空中交通管理学院，四川广汉61830刀 摘 要：分组列车与单组列车是我国车流组织的两种形式，二者互有利弊，对英开行适用条件研究具有理论价值 和现实意义。根据固定车组重量分组列车集结的动态待性和车组到达的不确定性，将车组的车数和间隔时间都 视为随机变呈，应用随机过程理论，解析其在编成站和途中换挂站的集结耗费相对于单组列车的节省和额外梏 耗，以一住夜所产生的总净节省的数学期望作为其综合效益的度量，给出分组列车合理开行的判别式和更易判 定的必要条件。针对模型的特点，应用离散事件系统仿真方法进行模拟。仿真算例表明：判定条件的吻合率为 97. 36%，必要条件的失真率为4 52% 淇综合效益受到车组平均车数和平均间隔时间参数彫响且前者灵敏稻 度更高适用于车流量较小且车流到达强度之比接近固定车组施呈之比情形。 关键词：固定车组重呈分组列车；适用条件；不确定性：随机过程；离散事件系统仿真 中图分类号：U292 3 文献标志码：A doi 3969/} issn 1001-8360. 2011. 12 001 Research on Applicable Operation Conditions of Multi-blockTrain with Fixed Weight under Uncertainty CHEN Chong-shuang，WANG Ci-guang1. YANG Yun-gui2. XUE Feng1f? School of T ransportation a nd Logistics ? Southwest J iaot on g Uni versit Che ngdu 610031? China：2. College of Air Traffic Management. Civil Aviation Flight University of China. Guanghan 618307. China) Abstract :The multi-block train ^roup train) and one-block train Single-group train) are the two modes of car flow organ izat io n in our country and they both have their own advantages and disadvantages. The research on their applicable operating conditions is of theoretical and practical significance. Basing on the uncertainty of arrival and dynamic assemb- ng characteristics of the multi-block train with fixed weight, taking the number and interval time of cars as random variables and applying the theory of「andom process the aggregation costs of the multi-block train occu「「ing at the formation station and intermediate compling-change stations were compared with the one-block train to obtain the relative saved costs and additional expenditu「es Inking the expectation of the total net savings of night and day as the measurement of the comprehensive benefit， the discriminant and more easily judged necessary conditions essential to running of the multi-block train were given In view of the characteristics of the model， simulation was made with the discrete e- vent system simulat