国际金融协会-2017年新兴市场资本流入报告.pdf

Capital Flows to Emerging Markets Brighter Outlook June 5, 2017  Non-resident capital inflows to EMs are projected to increase by USD252 billion to USD970 billion in 2017  We look for a notable moderation in resident outflows from China this year, helped by RMB stability  Mixed prospects for FDI, but we see some improvement in banking flows as well as solid portfolio flows  South-South investment makes up some 5% of total cross-border investment in EMs vs 2% a decade ago  Key risks to our forecast include more aggressive Fed tightening—including rate hikes and balance sheet runoff—than is being priced in by markets. All else being equal, a USD500 billion decline in Fed Treasury holdings would be associated with a reduction of over USD50 billion in EM portfolio flows.  Starting with this report, we have adopted the latest BPM6 presentation for the balance of payments. CLOUDS LIFTING Table of Contents The first months of 2017 have seen some potential head- winds for EM capital flows abate. In particular, efforts by Executive summary 1 Chinese policymakers to support growth and ensure RMB A brighter outlook for EM capital flows 2 stability ahead of the autumn leadership transition should Macro backdrop: mostly sunny 3 mean a less-volatile backdrop. At the same time, concerns Box 1: South-South trade investment flows 5 about the impact of an “America First” orientation of U.S. Market backdrop: have we hit “Peak EM?” 6 trade policy have subsided—at least for the time being—as Box 2: EM portfolio flows by investor type 8 U.S. policymakers focus on the domestic agenda including