生态安全的动态评价及多层次分析.pdfVIP

system structure of Beijing has been stably developing. Increasing speed of ecological safety characteristic value of Hubei province presents a sometimes big and sometimes small trend, and the Liaoning increases at first then decreases. Through the forecast analysis to higher correlation indexes of Beijing, Hubei and Liaoning, MIEP model has feasibility and scientific nature for ecological security prediction. MIEP model can reflect from dynamic mechanism and elements interactions of ecological security and the evaluation results can be quantitatively expressed by , and connection weights can be obtained in the process of self-organization in SOFM network, avoiding the subjectivity of artificial setting. At the same time, it also has reliability in the ecological security prediction. KEY WORDS: ecological safety; maximum entropy principle; evaluation system; P-S-R model; complex system 万方数据 目 录 第一章 绪论 1 1.1 研究背景与意义 1 1.1.1 研究背景 1 1.1.2 研究目的与意义 1 1.2 生态安全研究进展2 1.2.1 生态安全的内涵2 1.2.2 国外研究进展4 1.2.3 国内研究进展5 1.3 生态安全评价研究进展6 1.3.1 生态安全评价方法6 1.3.2 生态安全评价指标体系7 1.4 目前存在的问题7 1.5 论文框架与技术路线8 1.6 可能的创新点9 第二章 生态安全评价模型 11 2.1 最大信息熵原理及其扩展 11 2.2 基于MIEP 的生态安全评价模型 12 2.3 数值模拟的实现 14 2.4 本章小结 15 第三章 生态安全评价指标体系及标准 16 3.1 生态安全评价的概念模型 16 3.2 生态安全评价指标体系的确立原则 16 3.3 生态安全评价指标体系的构建 17 3.3.1 评价指标体系 17 3.3.2 评价指标的内涵 19 3.4 生态安全评价标准及等级20