抓住全球油气行业的价值：现在准备-为未知的未来-麦肯锡.docxVIP

麦肯锡 2014年7月 抓住全球油气行业的价值: 现在准备，为未知的未来 Capturing value in global gas: Prepare now for an uncertain future There is huge uncertainty about how global gas markets will evolve, but the extent of the value at stake makes it imperative for liquified natural gas suppliers and buyers to act now. Unforeseen events have disrupted the gas market in the last eight years but paradoxically lent it a degree of stability—for the time being, at least. The shale-gas boom in the United States, rapidly increasing Asian demand, and the European economic crisis have driven huge price discrepancies among regional markets. The influence of these three disruptions is not likely to wane before the turn of the decade. But then what? Enormous value is at stake. Depending on how factors such as Asian demand, oil prices, or North American exports play out, our analysis suggests that value creation in the global gas industry in 2030 could be anywhere between $310 billion and $725 billion, compared with $340 billion in 2011. This $415 billion difference in potential outcomes in a single year suggests very different prospects not only for the industry as a whole but also for different participants, as the value gains will by no means be evenly spread. Liquefied natural gas (LNG), while only accounting for 10 percent of the global gas market currently, will be a key determinant of market prices and eventual value creation, as it is the only supply source mobile enough to plug supply and demand gaps in international markets. At the moment, it is in short supply. But because uncertainty about future prices has made buyers reluctant to sign new long-term contracts under traditional terms that link gas prices to oil prices, developers of gas reserves outside North America have been hesitant to sanction new LNG facilities, particularly as LNG project costs are rising rapidly. This may seem prudent in the face of so much uncertainty. But by doing nothing, LNG developers risk forgoing future profitable su