安全系统工程4.pptVIP

安全科学与工程学院 预测，作为人类的一种思维活动早已存在于人类的社会实践中，并一直为人们所重视。 两千多年前的“孙子兵法”就谈到预测，如“生死之地，存亡之道，不可不察也”。这里的察，就是预测的意思； “凡事预则立，不预则废”，则是我国古代学者对预测的深刻认识，精辟地概括了预测的重要意义。 系统安全预测 预测是研究未来的一门学科。 随着科学技术的进步和生产水平的日益提高，人类的预测活动愈来愈频繁，涉及的领域愈来愈广阔，预测方法和手段愈来愈科学和先进，广泛应用于经济、技术和社会发展的各个领域。 预测技术和控制手段的有效结合，是现代安全技术的基本发展方向。 系统安全预测 Prediction as a thinking activity of human, it has long been in the social practice and received people’s attention 2000 years ago. The Art of War mentioned prediction “it is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin, hence it is a subject of inquiry which can on no account be neglected”. “Inquiry” is prediction. “Fail to plan, plan to fail” is the profound understanding on prediction of Chinese ancient scholars, which summarizes the significance of prediction penetratingly. Prediction is a subject of study future. With the development of science, technology and production level, human’s prediction activities are becoming more and more frequent, the fields involved broader and techniques and methods more scientific and advanced. It is widely applied in each field of economy, technology and social development. Hence, the combination between prediction technology and control methods is the basic trend of modern safety technology. 系统安全预测 一、预测的种类、原则及程序 事故预测，或称安全预测、危险性预测，是对系统未来的安全状况进行预测，预测系统中存在哪些危险及其危险程度，以便对事故进行预报和预防。通过预测，可以掌握—个企业或部门伤亡事故的变化趋势，帮助人们认识事故的客观规律，制订政策、发展规划和技术方案。 一、预测的种类、原则及程序 Accident prediction (safety prediction or hazard prediction) carries out prediction on future safety state of a system to predict hazards and their levels so as to predict and prevent accident. The trend of casualty in an industry or a department can be gripped through prediction, which is helpful in the recognition of accidents, policy making and the development of plans and technology schemes. 一、预测的种类、原则及程序 ( 1) In terms of fields of prediction objects Macroscopic prediction Microscopic prediction ( 2) In terms of prediction time span Long-term pred