经济转型中的我国就业市场-挑战及对策chinesejobmarketineconomictransition-.pptxVIP

经济转型中的我国就业市场：挑战及对策 Chinese Job Market in Economic Transition : Challenges and Countermeasures;2; ; CIER指数简介：introduction of the CIER index;曾湘泉;一、总体判断(1)—就业市场总量趋冷，结构矛盾突出Current Situation (1)- The Job Market Overall Was Rather Dormant and Structural Problem Stands Out; 利用计量经济模型，剔除主要由于人口结构变迁所造成的CIER指数呈现的长期上升趋势，以及由于求职申请人数明显的季节性变化而造成的CIER指数季节性变化特征后，2015年第一季度至第四季度，CIER指数周期性成分持续下降,就业市场景气程度不容乐观。如下图所示：　Using econometrical modeling, it was found that after removing the long term upward trend of the CIER Index caused by the changes of population structure, and the seasonal fluctuation of the CIER Index caused by the seasonal change of job applications, the periodic component of the index continued to decline throughout 2015, indicating that the employment situation is not optimistic (fig. below).;一、总体判断(2)—存在诸多不确定因素Current Situation (2)- Unpredictable Factors;曾湘泉; ;二、突出问题（1）—劳动力供给压力渐缓，但隐性失业公开化开始显现Prominent Problems(1)-Supply Pressure is Reducing While the Hidden Unemployment Emerges;二、突出问题（2）—“双结构”矛盾加剧，解决难度加大Prominent Problems(2)- “Dual-Structural” Contradiction Are Sharpening;;不同企业规模增长完全不同 Different speed of growth in enterprises with different scales ;二、突出问题（3）—就业质量偏低的现状并未明显改善Prominent Problems(3)-The Situation That The Quality Of Employment Is Low Has Not Been Improved; ;三、对策和建议（1）—旨在提高劳动力市场匹配效率的就业促进政策 Countermeasures and Suggestions(1)- Employment Promotion Policy Aimed At Promoting Matching Efficiency In Labor Market;劳动力市场基础数据建设与信息公开 Build basic data on labor market and information openness 着手统计调查劳动力市场职位空缺的数据 借鉴美国的DOT（Dictionary of Occupational Titles）出版我国的《职业名称大词典》 公开劳??力市场的基础指标，包括我国的城镇的调查失业率和分专业的高校毕业生招生数量与毕业生数量等 Get down to collecting job vacancy data Take American DOT as an example to establish our own “Dictionary of Occupational Titles” Release basic labor market indices, including surveyed urban unemployment rate, the number of college enrollment and graduates by major.;专业化的就业服务与职业生涯规划 Provide professional guidance for career