J.P. 摩根-亚太地区-投资策略-亚洲新兴市场指南：压抑的解禁热情-2020.5.13.pdf

Asia Pacific Rates FX Strategy 13 May 2020 EM Asia Local Markets Compass Curbing re-opening enthusiasm  A gradual relaxation of Covid-19-related lockdowns is underway in many parts Emerging Markets Strategy of Asia. However we expect EM Asian local markets to be more circumspect AC Ar indam Sandilya regarding re-opening related optimism since any domestic activity lift can be (65) 6882- 59 more than offset by the continued malaise in regional exports to G2 that is still arindam.x.sandilya@ under varying degrees of lockdown, and there is no obvious undervaluation JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore buffer to take advantage of (ex-IndoGBs) after the sharp rebound in GBI-EM Branch from its crash lows in March. Increasing US/China political noise and a Jonathan Cavenagh AC potential inflection in oil price weakness – a key source of relative Asian (65) 6882-8424 outperformance vis-a-vis rest of EM YTD – are additional reasons to consider a jonathan.cavenagh@ cautious stance on Asia LM. However we are mindful of the potential flow push JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore from the glut of G4 central bank liquidity that can override cyclical negativity, Branch esp