HS-全球-投资策略-全球固定收益资产配置：动态需求驱动-2020.5.5.pdf

5 May 2020 THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO MAINLAND CHINA Fixed Income Asset Allocation Fixed Income Rates Dynamic demand drivers Global  We reduced our year-end yield forecasts for the US, Australia and the UK to 50bp, 65bp and 20bp respectively  The zero-bound for policy rates, debt overhangs and the threat or use of yield curve control...  …should combine to keep these yields at record low levels for the coming years Dynamic demand drivers Page 4 Following massive intervention from governments and central banks we look at the Steven Major, CFA dynamics of increased demand for safe assets and emphasise the co-ordination Global Head of Fixed Income Research between government bond issuers and their respective central banks. Deflation is the HSBC Bank plc steven.j.major@ near-term concern, with demand levels unlikely to return to pre-COVID-19 levels for +44 20 7991 5980 some time. Increased bond supply has therefore not been a problem for the US, the UK, Australia and Japan, countries that issue freely in their own currencies. Bullish Australia – a good alternative for duration Page 22 We lower our Australian government 10-year yield forecast to 65bp from 1.0% on the basis of recent valuations against our expected path fo