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Equities
Global Luxury
By: Erwan Rambourg, Antoine Belge, Anne-Laure Bismuth, May 2020
Murielle Andre-Pinard, Giulio Pescatore and Alexis Cooper
COVID-19: Deluxe Edition
Luxury demand is going swoosh-shaped
Don’t extrapolate China’s V-shaped
rebound, West is likely to remain
more muted
Q2 sales to be down more than twice
Q1 decline, dramatic earnings cuts in
2020e and ripple for 2021e; pandemic
to accelerate “4C” trends driving the
luxury sector
Fundamentals and ratings not always
aligned. Best-in-class remain LVMH
(Buy), Kering (Buy), Ferrari (Buy),
Moncler (Hold), Hermès (Hold).
Upgrade Burberry and Tapestry to
Buy from Hold. Downgrade Aston
Martin Lagonda to Hold from Buy
Play interview with
Erwan Rambourg
Disclosures Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in
the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.
Equities ● Luxury Goods
May 2020
Executive Summary
Luxury demand is going swoosh-shaped
You think Q1 was tough? Think again: Q2 could be twice as bad
and possibly loss making for most. While mainland China’s
rebound will be stunning, don’t extrapolate: luxury demand
rebounding should be very gradual and won’t happen overnight,
especially with Western clienteles. But beware – the best
fundamentals may not correspond to the best investment
opportunities.
What shape is luxury in?
Optimists might
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