J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2020.5.8.pdf

J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2020.5.8.pdf

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Economic Research May 8, 2020 Global Data Watch  April is the worst month in the worst growth quarter on record  US labor income losses offset by fiscal supports this quarter  EM central banks continue conventional and QE easing  Next week: China rebound continues; April showers elsewhere Let us pause in lifes pleasures and count its many tears While markets appear to be turning their attention to a recovery expected to start in May, April reports are unveiling the worst month in the worst quarter- ly global growth slump on record. A 20.5 million US employment loss was not a surprise but still revealed a stunning convulsion that pushed the US un- employment rate up to 14.7%, the highest since 1940. This spike does not capture the full extent of the unemployment rise. Workers that left the work- force or were measured as employed but were not at work due to other rea- sons each rose by more than 6 million last month. At the same time, our glob- al all-industry PMI posted its largest one-month decline to an all-time low, led by a record collapse in the services sector component of the survey. Excluding an expected surge in China, global GDP is on track to contract at an unprece- dented 23% ar this quarter. Despite a synchronized downturn across much of the world, labor market out- turns vary considerably. While the US and Canada have delivered historic leaps in unemployment, Germany’s unemployment rate moved up less than 1%-pt last month. Overall, the Euro area, UK, and Sweden are each forecasted to have an unemployment rate rise of only around 3%-pts this quarter, despite a projected 47% ar

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