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Economic Research
May 8, 2020
Global Data Watch
April is the worst month in the worst growth quarter on record
US labor income losses offset by fiscal supports this quarter
EM central banks continue conventional and QE easing
Next week: China rebound continues; April showers elsewhere
Let us pause in lifes pleasures and count its many tears
While markets appear to be turning their attention to a recovery expected to
start in May, April reports are unveiling the worst month in the worst quarter-
ly global growth slump on record. A 20.5 million US employment loss was
not a surprise but still revealed a stunning convulsion that pushed the US un-
employment rate up to 14.7%, the highest since 1940. This spike does not
capture the full extent of the unemployment rise. Workers that left the work-
force or were measured as employed but were not at work due to other rea-
sons each rose by more than 6 million last month. At the same time, our glob-
al all-industry PMI posted its largest one-month decline to an all-time low, led
by a record collapse in the services sector component of the survey. Excluding
an expected surge in China, global GDP is on track to contract at an unprece-
dented 23% ar this quarter.
Despite a synchronized downturn across much of the world, labor market out-
turns vary considerably. While the US and Canada have delivered historic
leaps in unemployment, Germany’s unemployment rate moved up less than
1%-pt last month. Overall, the Euro area, UK, and Sweden are each forecasted
to have an unemployment rate rise of only around 3%-pts this quarter, despite
a projected 47% ar
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