大和证券(香港)--中国经济展望.pdfVIP

ChinaChina EconomicEconomic OutlookOutlook FurtherFurther recovery?recovery? April 2013 ChiChi SSun (Ph(Ph.DD. EEconomiistt, ChiChina)) Tel: (852) 2848 4427 E-mail: chi.sun@ Summary  The recovery in the economy in 1Q13 was weaker than we had expected at the beginning of the year, likely due to the negative impact of fighting pollution and the government’s new frugality and anti-graft camppaiggns.  In our view, this negative impact should fade gradually and the economy should recover further in the next few qquarters. Therefore,, we maintain our full-yyear GDP ggrowth forecast of 8.4% YoY for 2013 ((upp from 7.8% YoY for 2012), with a peak of 8.7% YoY in 3Q13.  Recent declines in food pprices,, esppeciallyy for ppork,, suggggest mild inflation will continue in the near term,, but there are increasing risks of high CPI inflation in 4Q13.  A weak rebound in GDP ggrowth and mild inflation ppressure would encouragge the PBOC to maintain its current policy stance, with a loosening bias in the next few months before mild tightening is introduced in 4Q13.  The country’s new leaders are likely to embark on major structural reforms in 2013, which should provide positive catalysts for the economy and the financial markets.  However, we judge the recovery in GDP as only a cyclical upturn in a multi-year downturn. 2 Headline indicators show a weak recovery in 1Q13 Industrial production and nominal retail sales Fixed asset investment (year-to-date) (% YoY) % YoY, YTD 24