进度风险研究.docVIP

PAGE 30 PAGE 1 PAGE 3 摘 要 进度控制是三大控制目标之一，一直作为控制的重点而倍受关注。工期大幅拖延，将会影响其他两大目标的实现，不仅可能造成社会资源的巨大浪费，而且工程质量也会受到不同程度的影响。相反，工期进度提前，项目提前投入运行，将产生直接经济效益。而大型土木工程项目一般都投资巨大，技术经济复杂，建设工期较长，实际施工环境的往往会与设定的各种因素不完全一致，不确定性因素发生的机会较多，进度风险的概率相对更大。因此，对工程进度进行风险管理，对工程项目中的不确定性因素进行分析和研究，采取有效的措施减少风险发生的概率和损失，是控制项目工期、实现进度目标、保障大型建设工程顺利进行的有效手段。 在工程建设领域，计划评审技术(ProgramEvaluationandReviewTechnique，PERT)在制定进度网络计划、进行进度风险分析等问题上得到了广泛应用，国内外对PERT的研究也一直方兴未艾，针对PERT中活动持续时间的分布、活动持续时间的确定、风险因素和工期的概率分布、关键路线、完工概率计算等问题取得了一些成果，但还存在许多问题值得继续探讨。为此，本文以风险因素和网络活动工序为研究对象，以PERT网络为基础，通过对活动进行风险识别、估计，构造了基于风险因素概率模型的活动持续时间随机抽样方法，建立基于风险因素量化的进度网络模型，然后利用蒙特卡罗法求解，改进了PERT计算方法，在得到完工概率、线路关键度等常规的宏观指标的基础上，又构造了风险因素一工期线性相关系数即风险关键度指标(瓦skcriticialIndex，Rcl)，改进的方法充分体现和利用了风险分析的结果。最后通过一个实例验证了此模型的可行性，同时说明利用RCI能够量化风险因素影响工期的水平，为工程进度风险有重点的控制提供可靠依据。 关键词 进度风险；风险管理；PERT；AHP；RCI基于PERT的工程进度风险分析 Abstract Schedule control is one of the three control objectives, control has been a focus and attracted much attention. A time delay implementation will affect the other two goals, not only may cause a huge waste of social resources, but also the quality of the project will be affected in different degrees. On the contrary, ahead of schedule, in advance of the project put into operation, will produce direct economic benefits. And large civil engineering projects are generally huge investment, complex technology economy, longer construction time limit for a project, the actual construction environment tend to and set various factors are not entirely consistent, more chance of uncertainty factors, the probability of schedule risk relatively larger. Therefore, on the progress of the works were risk management, carries on the analysis and the research to the project of uncertainty factors, take effective measures to reduce the risk probability and loss, control project schedule, progress in achieving the goals and guarantee the smooth of large-scale construction projects is effective method. In the field of engineering construction, program evaluation and rev