非洲大陆自由贸易区：经济和分配效应.docxVIP

THE AFRICAN CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AREA Economic and Distributional Effects The African Continental Free Trade Area The African Continental Free Trade Area Economic and Distributional Effects Contents Contents ForewordIX Foreword IX Acknowledgments XI About the Authors XIII About the Contributors XV Abbreviations XIX OVERVIEW 1 Data and methodology 1 Macroeconomic impacts of AfCFTA 3 Distributional impacts of AfCFTA on poverty and employment 5 The African Continental Free Trade Area is a key to help Africa address the challenges of COVID-19 7 Caveats 8 References 9 1 INTRODUCTION 11 Notes 13 Reference 14 2 THE CONTENT OF AfCFTA AND AFRICAN SUBREGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS 15 Notes 18 References 19 3 LITERATURE REVIEW 21 References 22 4 DATA AND METHODOLOGY 25 Data 25 Global dynamic computable general equilibrium model 25 Distributional impacts of AfCFTA 26 Trade facilitation 37 Notes 38 References 39 5 MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF AfCFTA 41 Real income implications 43 Trade implications 46 Output implications 52 Government revenue implications 54 Notes 55 References 55 6 DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF AfCFTA ON POVERTY AND EMPLOYMENT 57 Effects on poverty 57 Effects on employment 59 Notes 67 References 67 7 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 69 8 CAVEATS 71 Notes 72 Appendix A: Data Preparation on Disaggregated Labor Volumes and Wages 73 Appendix B: Summary Description of the GIDD Model 81 Appendix C: Deep Commitments in African Regional Economic Communities, Legal Texts 87 Appendix D: Literature Review on the Impacts of AfCFTA 93 Appendix E: Recent World Bank Research on Regional Integration in Africa 97 Appendix F: Data Sources 101 Appendix G: Summary Description of the ENVISAGE Model 107 Appendix H: Statutory Tariff Data Availability by Country 119 Appendix I: Maximizing the Potential Benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area 121 Appendix J: Short-Term Revenue Implications of Tariff Liberalization under AfCFTA 127 Boxes 4.1 The importance of small-scale cross-border trade in Afri