台大环卫上课讲义052295.pptVIP

The integrated Assessment of Environmental Change and Public Health 台大環衛上課講義05/22/95 Integrated Assessment A structured process of dealing with complex issues, using knowledge from various scientific disciplines and/or stakeholders, such that integrated insights are made available to decision makers System modeling: simulation of the response of the physical, biological, and/or social system to changes in inputs, assumptions, and decisions Decision evaluation: comparison of alternative decisions in terms of their risks and performance on important objectives and application of value judgments by users to rank or screen alternatives Guidelines Pose the question: what is the possible policy relevance of this model and this analysis? Explicit consideration of those tradeoffs among multiple objectives Pay attention to the analysis and communication of uncertainty Begin simply. Refrain from focusing extensively on those feasible outcomes 先著重科學課題之理解，再推衍至政策擬定 科學問題研究方法 資料分析 現有長期資料庫 建立新資料庫 實際觀測 傳統觀測 新技術或新平台的觀測(飛機觀測、遙測) 模式分析及預測 氣候模式 大氣化學模式(空氣污染模式) 雲微物理模式 步驟 提出台灣環境變遷對公共衛生衝擊的重要課題 為何重要? 影響層面多大? 影響人數多寡? 影響地區範圍? Health outcome嚴重性? 何種研究方法最適合探討此一課題? 有無合適資料庫? 若無，如何架構新資料庫? 有無新的技術? 與哪些領域重疊? 能否發展出新的技術或平台? 與其他相關領域專家密集討論上述兩點，調整研究方向及研究方法 記住研究的是動態變化的環境 Table5.1(continue) Research Characteristics and Challenges (1) Anticipated anthropogenic climate change will be a gradual and long-term process. This projected change in mean climate conditions is likely to be accompanied by regional changes in the frequency of extreme events Changes in particular health outcomes already may be occurring or soon may begin to occur, in response to recent and ongoing changes in world climate Identification of such health effects will require carefully planned epidemiological studies Research Characteristics and Challenges (2) In epidemiological studies, there often are difficulties in estimating the role of climate per se as a cause of change in health status. Changes in climate typically are accompanied by v