Q15英语四六级雅思托福考研GRE高考GMAT大小作文宝典策略技巧范文模板.docVIP

原作者思路：东C改变限速各种出事【出事的细节：1 统计 2 分析——警惕性降低】——改变限速是危险的行为——所以西C就不应该改变限速 需要大家掌握的基础知识——限速 1 统计 【时效性】 week M 这个统计数据是在一周内得出的 I 一周的时间统计的信息 足以证明 改变限速 危险 P 这个数据无法支持结论（时效性问题） E If 限速的平均（时间）很长， 一周内的数据就无法证明了。【原因 可能一周之内的数据可能包括了统计错误或者导致交通事故频发的其他原因】最终无法证明结论 1.1 统计数据 3% 如果基数非常小的话 那么数据无法支持 2 accident minor acc vs. Vital acc 3 alertness——dangerous 天气 4 东C 西C This editorial asserts that West Cambria should not change its highway speed limits because such changes adversely affect driver alertness and are therefore dangerous. To support this claim, the editorial cites statistics indicating that whenever East Cambria changed its speed limits, an average of 3 percent more automobile accidents occurred during the week after the change than during the week preceding it, even when the speed limit was lowered. As it stands, this argument suffers from three critical flaws. 【5MIN】 M The assertion that XXX is dangerous originated from a survey showing the change in number of accident within a week before and after any change. I The question raise by the author might lead us to believe that a one week period sta DATA can indicate the conclusion. P But the truth is that this sta. Could be inadequate. E As we can see, setting up speed limit is a long-term task for the GOV., so the basic character of SPL is stability, which means that the effect of SPL also requires a data that calculated in a comparatively long term. However the STA was only base on one week period. If the STA data tend to be wrong due to tech problems or the road accident increased due to bad weather, the one week STA data would fail to indicate the danger of changing SPL. First, it is unlikely that the brief one-week periods under comparison are representative of longer time periods. A difference of only 3 percent during one particular week can easily be accounted for by other factors, such as heavy holiday traffic or bad weather, or by problems with reporting or sampling. Had the editorial indicated that several speed