乌兹别克斯坦的转型（英文）.pdfVIP

SWP Research Paper Andrea Schmitz Uzbekistan’s Transformation Strategies and Perspectives Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs SWP Research Paper 12 September 2020, Berlin Abstract ∎ The presidential transition in Uzbekistan represents a novel development in the post-Soviet space. Regime insider Shavkat Mirziyoyev has succeeded in initiating change without provoking destabilisation. His reform pro- gramme aims to liberalise the economy and society while leaving the politi- cal system largely untouched. ∎ Implementation is centrally controlled and managed, in line with the country’s long history of state planning. Uzbeks accept painful adjust- ments in the expectation of a rising standard of living. And the economic reforms are rapidly creating incontrovertible facts on the ground. ∎ Uzbekistan has also made significant moves towards political liberalisa- tion, but remains an authoritarian state whose institutional framework and presidential system are not up for discussion. Rather than democrati- sation, the outcome of the transformation is more likely to be “enlightened authoritarianism” backed by an alliance of old and new elites . ∎ Nevertheless, there are good reasons for Germany and Europe to support the reforms. Priority should be placed on the areas most relevant for fostering an open society: promoting political competition, encouraging open debate, fostering independent public engagement and enabling genuine