如何规划疫情后的世界（英文）.pdf

Scenario Planning for a Post-COVID-19 World Make sure you are prepared for the new normal Michael Wade IMD Professor of Innovation and Strategy Director, the Global Center for Digital Business Transformation ® REAL LEA RNING. REAL IMPACT IMD Purpose Challenging what is and inspiring what could be, we develop leaders who transform organizations and contribute to society. IMD Mission Founded by business executives for business executives, we are an independent academic institution with Swiss roots and global reach. We strive to be the trusted learning partner of choice for ambitious individuals and organizations worldwide. 3 Executive Summary The COVID-19 virus is sweeping across Scenarios do not attempt to predict the future, the world, leaving a trail of economic and but rather identify a set of possible future social damage in its wake. Forward thinking states. They focus on the external driving organizations are starting to plan for a post- forces over which individual organizations COVID-19 world. However, predicting what have little or no control. Scenarios are both this world will look like is not easy. We can plausible and challenging. Organizations be reasonably sure that the world will not benefit from scenario planning by imagining simply revert back to the way it was before the how they might compete in each scenario. crisis, but what will be different? The problem This process helps them