淮河水质水量联合调度风险分析.pdf

中国科技论文在线 淮河水质水量联合调度风险分析# 1 2 1* 张翔 ，李良 ，吴绍飞 （1. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，武汉 430072； 5 2. 湖南省水利水电勘测设计研究总院，长沙 410007 ） 摘要：为了对淮河流域水质水量联合调度各方案进行风险分析，本文模拟了10 个调度方案， 包括实时调度方案，人机交互方案和优化调度方案，选取淮河流域两个主要污染物指标 CODMn 和NH3-N,分别计算各方案下两种水质指标超标风险率和超标程度，同时考虑调度过程 10 中可能产生的防洪风险和供水风险，采用多目标模糊综合决策的方法，分别考虑上述2 种水 质6 个指标，以水质监测断面界首、鲁台子和蚌埠闸为决策断面，计算得到7 中情景下各方 案的优劣排序。结果表明，实时调度方案2 在各种情境下风险最小，为最优调度方案，人机 交互方案（方案3、4 和5）在各种情景下风险均比较大，为最劣方案。 关键词：水利工程；水质水量联合调度；风险分析；多目标模糊综合决策 15 中图分类号：TV213 Risk Analysis of Water Quality and Quantity Joint Operation in Huaihe 1 2 1 ZHANG Xiang , LI Liang , WU Shaofei 20 (1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072; 2. Hunan HydroPower Design Institute,Changsha 410007) Abstract: In this paper, Joint water regulation of water quality in huaihe river basin in order to each project risk analysis, this paper simulates the 10 scheduling scheme, including real-time 25 scheduling scheme, the human-computer interaction scheme and the optimization scheduling solution, choosing two main pollutant indexes in the huai river region CODMn and NH3 - N, each scheme are calculated respectively under the two kinds of excessive risk and excessive water quality indicators, also considering scheduling may be produced in the process of flood control and water supply risk, using multi-objective fuzzy comprehensive decision method, respectively, 30