商务统计-C5商务统计.pdf

Chapter 5 A Survey of Probability Concepts GOALS 1.Define probability. 2.Describe the c lassical, empirical, and subject ive approaches to probability. 3.Explain the terms experiment, event, outcome, permutat ions, and combinat ions. 4.Define the terms cond it ional probability and jo int probability. GOALS 5.Calculate probabilit ies using the rules of add it ion and rules of mult iplicat ion. 6.Apply a tree d iagram to organize and compute probabilit ies. Definit ions A probability is a measure of the like lihood that an event in the future w ill happen. It can only assume a value between 0 and 1. Ax iomat ic definit ion Stat ist ical definit ion Empirical definit ion Definit ions · A value near zero means the event is not like ly to happen. · A value near one means it is like ly. Probability Examples Definit ions cont inued · An experiment is a process that leads to the occurrence of one and only one of several possible observat ions. · An outcome is a part icular result of an experiment. · An event is a co llect ion of one or more outcomes of an experiment. Experiments, Events and Outcomes Assigning Probabilit ies Three approaches to assigning probabilit ies. - C lassical - Empirical - Subject ive C lassical Probability C lassical Probability - Example Consider an experiment of ro lling a six-sided d ie. What is the probability of the event “an even number of spots appear face up”? The possible outcomes are: C lassical Probability - Example There are three “favorable” outcomes (a two, a four, and a six) in the co llect ion of six equally like ly possible outcomes. Mutually Exc lusive and Independent Events · Events are mutually exc lusive if occurrence of one event means that none of the other events can occur at the same t ime. · Events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not