预测供应链需求.ppt

8-31 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Classic Time Series Decomposition Model (Cont'd) Compute seasonal indices The procedure is to form a ratio of actual demand to the estimated demand for a full seasonal cycle (4 quarters). One way is as follows. t Y T Seasonal Index, S t 1 1200 957.15* 1.25** 2 700 994.29 0.70 3 900 1031.43 0.87 4 1100 1068.57 1.03 * T =920.01 ? 37.14(1)=957.15 ** S t =1200/957.15=1.25 8-32 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Classic Time Series Decomposition Model (Cont'd) Compute seasonal indices Since C and R index values are usually 1, the adjusted seasonal forecast for the 3rd quarter of this year would be: F 7 = 1179.99 x 0.87 = 1026.59 8-33 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Classic Time Series Decomposition Model (Cont'd) Forecast range The standard error of the forecast is: 1 ) ( 1 2 ? ? ? ? ? n F Y S n t t t F S F —— 预测的标准误差 Y t —— 第 t 期的实际需求 F t —— 第 t 期的预测值 N —— 预测期 t 的数量 8-34 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Classic Time Series Decomposition Model (Cont'd) Qtr t Y t T t S t F t 1 1 1200 957.15 1.25 2 2 700 994.29 0.70 3 3 900 1031.43 0.87 4 4 1100 1068.57 1.03 1 5 1400 1105.71 1.27 1404.25* 2 6 1000 1142.85 0.88 1005.71** 3 7 1179.99 1026.59 *1105.71x1.27=1404.25 **1142.85x0.88=1005.71 Tabled computations 8-35 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Classic Time Series Decomposition Model (Cont'd) There is inadequate data to make a meaningful estimate of S F . However, we would proceed as follows: infinity ? ? ? ? ? ? 1 2 1005.71) (1000 1404.25) (1400 2 2 F S Then, F t ? z ( S F ) ? Y ? F t ? z ( S F ) Normally, a larger sample size would be used giving a positive value for S F 8-36 CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. 8.3.4 回归分析 Regression Analysis 基本式 Basic formulation F = ? o ? ? 1 X 1 ? ? 2 X 2 ? … ? ? n X n Example Bobbie Brooks, a manufacturer of teenage women's clothes, was able to forecast seasonal sales from the following relationship F = constant ? ? 1 (no. nonvendor accounts) ? ? 2 (consumer debt ratio) 8-1 预测供应链需求 CR (2