一种快速路宏观交通流模型的标定方法.docx

一种快速路宏观交通流模型的标定方法 张硕，孙剑 （同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室，上海201804） 摘要：本文首先冋顾了快速路宏观交通流模型的研究现状，并结合我国的快速路交通流特性 选择经典的METANET模型进行标定研究：首先对研究路段进行单元划分，确定模型的初始参 数值和齐单元待标定参数，然后利用非线性最小二乘拟合方法对各标定单元关键参数进行标 定，接着根据各标雄单元参数的物理意义和标立结果选择嚴终的路网参数组合方案。最后本 文以上海市内环广中路瓶颈段利用实时检测数据对模型进行在线仿真标定。结杲表明，在1 分钟为单位的高频统计间隔下，标赵后模型速度平均绝对相对谋羌为15%,绝对相对课养为 20%,该模型参数组合基本能满足宏观快速路交通管理的需求。 关键词：交通运输系统工程；交通流模型；模型参数标定；非线性最小二乘拟合 中图分类号:U491.13 A calibration method for macroscopic traffic flow model onexpressway ZHANG Shuo, SUN Jian （Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, Tongji University, ShangHai 201804） Abstract: The studies of macroscopic traffic flow model on expressway were reviewed and a calibration method was proposed by selecting the classic METANET model based on the characteristics of expressway at Shanghai. Firstly, the research expressway segment was divided into several cells, and the initial model parameter values were determined and the key parameters to be calibrated of all cells were chossed.Then the nonlinear least square method is used to calibrate the key paramerters. After that, the final integrated parameter results were selected according to the practical significance of parameters and the calibration results.Eventually, a case study of a bottleneck at Guangzhong segment of Shanghai inner-ring expressway was conducted to demonstrate the accuracy of the calibrated model.The results showed that, after the implementation of the calbration method, the average MARE of speed is 15%,the maximum MARE of speed is 20% in 1 minute statistics inteval and the integrated parameters result of the model can meet the demand of macroscopic expressway traffic management. Keywords: transportation systems engineering; traffic flow model; model parameter calibration; the nonlinear least square method o引言 交通流仿真是再现交通流运行规律，对交通系统进行管理、控制和优化的重要实验手段 和工具。随着我国急速的城市化和机动化进程，城市快速路交通拥挤越來越严重，而理解快 速路交通流特性是解析快速路交通运行规律的基础，因此对快速路交通流模型进行研究成为 极为迫切的课题。口前国外对髙速公路/快速路交通流模型的相关研究已经比较系统，包括 宏观交通流模型（4、考虑信息作用的屮观动态交通流模型以及微观