从市场经济到和谐社会.pptxVIP

从市场经济到和谐社会——中国城乡二元结构体制下的经济发展与制度变迁China’s Economic Development Institutional Transition Under the Typical Dual System;内 容;中国的经济地理鸟瞰Bird View of China Economic landscape;中国大陆主要农产品产量在世界上的地位（1997）;1、中国的主要制度经验 Part 1. China’s Major Institutional experience ;未来的不确定性：劳动力预测Uncertainty: Labour force prediction ;;向市场经济转轨：什么“化”？什么“主义”Market Oriented Transition: Whatever-zations / -isms? ;2、中国农村基本制度常识Part 2. Common Sense of Rural Institution;建国以来的粮食生产变动The 50 years’ grain production ;1950年代国家工业化的困难：土地革命造成地权过于分散1950’’s Problem of State Industrialization: the indisposed aftermath of Succeeded “Land Revolution”; 平均地权的制度成本The Institutional Cost of “Equal Right”;3、集体化：在国家工业化形成的二元结构体制下的资本原始积累 Part 3. “Collectivization”: Under the Dual System forState Industrialization Its Capital Primary Accumulation ;基本事实 ：1960-70年代中国开展了以山水田林路综合治理为主要内容的基本建设运动。政府支付部分原材料，调动农民劳动力投入建设。What China did: 1960-70’s rural comprehensive reconstruction initiated by Gov. mobilizing surplus rural labor for the investment into the state infrastructures ;中国发展道路：原住民的自主工业化 China’s Development Path: Indigents‘ Self-relies Industrialization ;中国城乡二元结构：工业化原始积累/改革阶段 The Strategic Dual System between Rural/Urban: Double Supply for Primary Accumulation of State Industrialization;中国案例：50年经济周期趋势 Case Study: 50 years’ GDP Growth Cyclic Crisis Trend;中国50年的剪刀差增加50 Years’ Widen Price Scissors;工农产品剪刀差，即使在改革之后也是增加的，表明中国的城乡二元结构体制长期化 “Price Scissors”, an indicator of dual system of urban/rural, widen much than before since the reform, and dual system becomes long term problem 现代化城市与传统农村之间的消费缺口也不断拉大，导致中国的内需和外部投资都难以长期维持较大幅度增加，于是形成“大中国、小市场”的看法 “Big China, Small Market”-- the consumption gap of autarkic rural/ modernized urban has slowed down both the domestic demand and overseas investment 此外，中国经济增长的对外依存度从1994年的40%上升到2005年大于80%，内陆与沿海的区域差距也拉大到经济发展难以“可持续”的地步 “Unsustainable Development”--uneven economy between East and West, which push “dependency of foreign trade to GDP” climb up from 40%(1994) to 80%(2005);怎