2021年下半年港股市场投资展望和分析报告：覆水难收.pdfVIP

2021年下半年港股市场投资展望： 覆水难收 2021年6月8 日 核心观点  年初以来，大宗商品领涨全球大类资产，价值跑赢成长，5月中之后，再通胀交易有所收敛。疫情、债息 及美元等重要变量面临方向选择，市场投资风格开始酝酿新的变化，3季度有可能形成新的风格切换拐点。  下半年，全球主要经济增速陆续越过后疫情阶段的高点，经济增速将明显回落，但通胀压力仍将具刚性， 难以在短期内明显消退。PPI和CPI剪刀差将持续挤压下游企业利润，整体中报业绩难有惊喜。  3季度将是若干市场重要预期的检验窗口，市场关注重点将围绕通胀、削减QE、疫苗注射进度以及财政刺 激计划落实程度。在联储开始考虑收紧货币政策的预期之下，市场对资产泡沫的担忧显著上升，股市波动 率或将再次上升。  港股预测市盈率接近12.6倍，估值续处于区间上端，有回调空间。预计港股下半年总体维持区间波动并大 致呈现M型走势，恒生指数波动区间介于26500-29500 ，国企指数波动区间介于9500- 11500，科技指数波 动区间介于7500-9000。  行业配置建议：  下半年逐步减持顺周期的价值股（其中金融股有望跑赢能源和工业股），逢低吸纳优质的新经济成长股 龙头  重点关注业绩能见度高及有政策支持的内需股（消费、生物医药、硬件科技、汽车等）及新能源等 2 Executive summary  Year-to-date, commodities have outperformed global asset classes while value stocks outperformed growth stocks, but since mid-May we have noted a slight slowdown in the reflation trade. Potential shifts in the trend with regard to the pandemic, bond yields, and the US dollar have set the stage for another rotation in 3Q21.  In 2H21, with the major global economies soon to pass or having already passed the high point of the post- pandemic recovery, economic growth is likely to moderate. Inflation remains worth monitoring as various factors point to continued pressure ahead. The spread between the PPI and CPI indicates that downstream companies may see profits squeezed amid higher input costs, reducing the likelihood of upside surprises in earnings.  We expect 3Q21 to be a litmus test of market expectations. The market focus remains inflation, QE tapering, vaccination progress, and the implementation of fiscal stimulus. In an environment where the market expects the Fed to start discussing policy normalization, concern over market bubbles may increase, heralding a period of higher volatility.  The HSI is current