市场预测与管理决策分析.pptxVIP

市场预测与管理决策Forecasting Market and Decision Making;本章结构;确定型决策分析方法;线性规划分析法;一个例子;建立线形规划模型;线形规划模型求解（作图法为例） ;优化后分析 ;确定型库存管理决策分析法;Assumptions;Pattern of Inventory Levels for the EOQ Model;notation;Cost related;The Square Root Formula;有数量价格折扣时的经济订购量分析;The Quantity Discounts Being Offered to ACT;Cost Analysis;The Unit Holding Cost for ACT;Total Variable Cost vs. Order Quantity;Cost Comparison for Discount Categories;盈亏平衡分析法;example;盈亏分析作图法;盈亏平衡分析代数计算;一个例子;解答;风险型决策;基本结构;期望值准则及其分析方法;决策表法;;;;;;;一个例子;边际概率准则;边际概率准则分析方法;边际概率标准选择方案的步骤;一个例子（例11－13）;马尔可夫决策分析法;基本概念;马尔可夫过程;一个例子（例11－14）;解答;未确定型决策分析法;乐观法 (maximax);悲观法 (maximin);遗憾值法;等可能法;A local real estate investor in Orland is considering three alternative investments: a motel, a restaurant, or a theatre. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availability of gasoline and the number of tourists; profits from the theatre will be relatively stable under any conditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from each investment: ;Gasoline availability Investment;多阶段决策分析方法;动态规划法;图解法;决策树法;风险偏好和效用准则;风险偏好类型和效用曲线形态;9、春去春又回，新桃换旧符。在那桃花盛开的地方，在这醉人芬芳的季节，愿你生活像春天一样阳光，心情像桃花一样美丽，日子像桃子一样甜蜜。7月-217月-21Thursday, July 15, 2021 10、人的志向通常和他们的能力成正比例。20:24:1720:24:1720:247/15/2021 8:24:17 PM 11、夫学须志也，才须学也，非学无以广才，非志无以成学。7月-2120:24:1720:24Jul-2115-Jul-21 12、越是无能的人，越喜欢挑剔别人的错儿。20:24:1720:24:1720:24Thursday, July 15, 2021 13、志不立，天下无可成之事。7月-217月-2120:24:1720:24:17July 15, 2021 14、Thank you very much for taking me with you on that splendid outing to London. It was the first time that I had seen the Tower or any of the other famous sights. If Id gone alone, I couldnt have seen nearly as much, because I wouldnt have known my way about. 。15 七月 20218:24:17 下午20:24:177月-21 15、会当凌绝顶，一览众山小。七月 218:24 下午7月-2120:24July 15, 2021 16、如果一个人不知道他要驶向哪头，那么任何风都不是顺风。2021/7/15 20:24:1720:24:1715 July 2021 17、一个人如果不到最高峰，他就没有片刻的安宁，他也就不会感到生命的恬静和光荣。8:24:17 下午8:24 下午20:24:177月-21