研究者称苹果供应链削减缓解.docx

? ? ? ? ? 研究者称苹果供应链削减缓解 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? According to supply chain checks by FBR, the magnitude of recent Apple production cuts to its iPhone and iPod lines is lessening and order patterns among component suppliers may begin to stabilize somewhat.New supply chain checks have prompted FBR Capital Markets to maintain that Apple Inc is lowering volumes on some of its popular iPhone and iPod products, but that the magnitude of those cuts is lessening compared to what the market research house had projected in November.FBR last month estimated that based on supply chain checks iPhone production could fall more than 40% sequentially in Q4. Now FBR projects, based on checks, that Q4 build volumes were revised down by 20% off of a low base, with the total cut modest in absolute units, and should decline about 50% sequentially.FBR had suggested at the time that Q1 production would also see declines and now believes the degree of those declines could be less than anticipated.For 1Q, we believe iPhone build volumes were revised up by 8%, partially offsetting the negative Q4 revision, and should decline 25% sequentially off of a lower base (versus down 45% previously [estimated]), Craig Berger and Robert Pikover, FBR semiconductor market analysts, said in a report today.Our calculations suggest end consumers could buy a theoretical maximum of 10.5 million iPhones in Q4, including inventory at carriers and at Apple. On the iPod front, our checks suggest calendar Q4 and Q1 build volumes were each revised down by 10% versus our prior checks, they continued.According to FBR estimates, iPod builds for Q4 should grow 30% sequentially (versus the 44% the firm had previously estimated), while Q1 iPod build volumes should decline about 66% sequentially (unchanged from FBRs prior checks).We believe all flavors of iPods are seeing fewer builds, with the Touch seeing the largest reduction to Q4 build volumes and the Nano seeing the largest reduction to Q1