中国物流行业：共同富裕对该行业意味着什么（英）-HSBC-2022.2-75页.docxVIP

Future Transport Equity Research Report China Thematic research By: David Wu (S1700518110001) February 2022 China Logistics What common prosperity means for the industry Rising labour costs threaten the razor- thin margins of China’s giant logistics industry We detail how logistics players can absorb or reduce the cost pressure… …and focus on new drivers for the on-demand delivery sector. Initiate on leader SF Intra-city with a Buy rating; maintain Buys on YTO Express and Yunda Disclosures Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Future Transport ● Equities Future Transport ● Equities 25 February 2022 Future Transport ● Equities Future Transport ● Equities 25 February 2022 PAGE PAGE 11 PAGE PAGE 10 Why read this report? Rising labour costs threaten the razor-thin margins of China’s giant logistics industry We detail how logistics players can absorb or reduce the cost pressure… …and focus on new drivers for the on-demand delivery sector. Initiate on leader SF Intra-city with a Buy rating; maintain Buys on YTO Express and Yunda David Wu* (S1700518110001) Head, A-share Transportation Logistics Research HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited david.wu@ +86 21 6081 3802 Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Why now? Chinas giant logistics industry has long relied on cheap labour who works long hours under pressure and often without social security. That’s coming to an end as common prosperity aims to improve livelihoods, especially for vulnerable workers like delivery couriers. The logistics industry relies on razor-thin margins and labour accounts for as much as 95% of costs for some companies according to our estimate. We take a deep dive into what higher salaries, increased social insurance payments and other welfare expenses mean and why the long-term o