麦格理股票分析——2016年GDP增长6.7%.pdfVIP

CHINA Macro Monday Inside Growth target set at 6.5-7% for 2016 Market Sector Performance  China stocks rallied heading into the Dual Conferences: Last week H- (HK stocks) 2 shares jumped 6.5% while A-shares also rebounded 3.9%. The rally was led Market Sector Performance by cyclical sectors such as materials and energy (Fig 1). Iron ore, steel and (China stocks) 3 copper prices were up 11%, 2%, and 3% last week (Fig 22, 23, 25), while oil price has rallied 40% since the trough in mid-Jan. Interbank liquidity remained Activity data watch 4 largely stable thanks to the RRR cut (Fig 33), while RMB was guided stronger Policy outlook 5 on weaker USD (Fig 38). Commodities space 6  China set growth target of 6.5-7% for 2016: Last Saturday, China Property market 7 announced that the growth target was set at 6.5-7% for 2016. It is in line with Liquidity watch 8 our expectation and a major factor underpinning our 6.7% GDP growth forecast for this year. It’s also underlying our call over the past month that Exchange rate 9 policy makers would step up stimulus, because growth in 1Q16 is Industrial indicators 10 approaching 6.5%, the bo