第六章供应链中的需求预测.pptVIP

Adaptive Forecasting where Lt = estimate of level at the end of Period t Tt = estimate of trend at the end of Period t St = estimate of seasonal factor for Period t Ft = forecast of demand for Period t (made Period t – 1 or earlier) Dt = actual demand observed in Period t Et = Ft – Dt = forecast error in Period t 第十九页，共五十四页。 Steps in Adaptive Forecasting Initialize Compute initial estimates of level (L0), trend (T0), and seasonal factors (S1,…,Sp) Forecast Forecast demand for period t + 1 Estimate error Compute error Et+1 = Ft+1 – Dt+1 Modify estimates Modify the estimates of level (Lt+1