消费者行为学 第2版 英文ppt ch19tc.pptVIP

Slide 1 Chapter 19Strategies for Improving Managerial Decision Making © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 2 CHAPTER OBJECTIVES Objective 1—Understand decision frame management. Objective 2—Define epistemic unfreezing. Objective 3—Determine how to increase predictive accuracy via defining the base rate, assessing the reliability and validity of information, distinguishing between convergence and redundancy, resisting scenario thinking, and avoiding overconfidence. Objective 4—Define judgment updating and revision. © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 3 EPISTEMIC UNFREEZING Epistemic Seizing—the tendency to attain closure quickly, even if this means oversimplifying an issue or failing to carefully consider all options. Epistemic Freezing—the tendency to maintain closure as long as possible, even if this means being close-minded or unwilling to consider alternatives. © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 4 EPISTEMIC UNFREEZING Integrative complexity—considering a wide range of options and more information about each option. Marketing manager should consider multiple… positioning strategies product concepts pricing strategies promotional campaigns distribution options © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 5 INCREASING PREDICTIVE ACCURACY Planning fallacy—the overconfident belief that a project will proceed smoothly as planned. Managers should consider base rates—prior rates of incidence or occurrence. Focusing on simila