股票市场对货币政策.docVIP

PAGE PAGE II PAGE PAGE I 股票市场对货币政策的传导机制研究 摘 要 日前，全球经济形势日益复杂，这导致全球范围内股票市场更加动荡。近年来，全世界股票市场的持续发展已导致越来越多的国家的货币当局更加重视货币政策在股票市场上的传导机制。在我国，股票市场是从零开始的，随着时间的推移，其对于我们国家经济发展所造成的影响越来越严重。另一方面，股票市场的特点是其全面的市场机制，包括对于公司的运营监督、市场的风险管理、公司的产权交易以及市场的资源配置等四个方面，运作模式越来越成熟，对传统的货币政策交付机制也产生了重大影响。基于此，对我国股票市场对货币政策的传导机制进行系统的探索及分析具有着重要的现实意义。 本文首先介绍了我国的货币政策如何影响股票市场以及股票市场如何影响实体经济。接着，从我国的实际经济情况出发，选取2010年1月-2018年12月的月度数据，使用Eviews7.2分析软件，在VAR模型的基础上，使用计量经济学方法进行了相应的分析，包括ADF的单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验和脉冲响应分析等。最后根据所得结果，当前，货币政策在股票市场上的传导机制相对无效，货币供应量的变化可能对股票价格产生影响，但是利率的变动对股价却几乎没有影响。 关键词：股票市场；货币政策；传导机制；实证分析；VAR Research on the transmission mechanism of stock market to monetary policy Abstract Recently, the global economic situation has become increasingly complex, which has led to a more turbulent global stock market. In recent years, the continuous development of stock markets around the world has led more and more countries ’monetary authorities to pay more attention to the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the stock market. In China, the stock market started from scratch, and its impact on Chinas macroeconomics is also increasing. The role of the stock market as a market mechanism for resource allocation, property rights trading, risk management and company supervision is becoming more and more obvious, and it has had a significant impact on the traditional monetary policy delivery mechanism. Based on this, it is of great practical significance to systematically explore and analyze the transmission mechanism of Chinas stock market to monetary policy. First, the paper outlines the impact of Chinas monetary policy on the securities market and the real economy.Then, starting from the actual economic situation in China, the monthly data from January 2010 to December 2018 were selected, using Eviews7.2 analysis software, and based on the VAR model, From the perspective of computational economics, including ADF root test, Jones point test, Graner causality test and impulse response