中国对泰国直接投资现状及影响因素分析.pdfVIP

摘 要 随着国际经济的不断发展，经济全球化成为大势所趋，跨国公司的外国直接投资 行为已成为全球经济中重要的部分。中国的对外直接投资很大一部分集中于东南 亚地区，国内外许多学者针对中国对大湄公河次区域和中国对东盟的直接投资问 题进行了研究，并得出了一些结论，对指导实践有着重要意义。但是只有少数人 从某一国家的角度进行分析，对泰国的研究更是鲜有，因而中国对泰国直接投资 的相关问题值得我们探索。 本文在对中国对泰国直接投资的现状进行阐述后，进一步探究了中国对泰国直接 投资的效应，其中创造效应显著，转移效应具有不确定性，贸易效应和逆向技术 溢出效应不显著。之后从政治、经济、文化、法律的角度分别指出了影响中国对 泰国直接投资的因素，并对经济因素进项了实证分析，通过建立 VAR 模型，得 出了短期内中国对泰国直接投资规模受前期投资规模影响较大，与泰国工资水平 和市场开放程度负相关，受中国对泰国出口量影响较小的结论。最后基于对各方 面影响因素的讨论，本文认为中国政府应当完善海外投资保险机制，从而提高跨 国企业的抗风险能力，同时加强中泰两国民间文化交流，改善中国制造在泰形象； 企业应当把握中泰经济发展的机遇，促进企业对泰国直接投资。 关键词：对外直接投资；泰国；影响因素；VAR 模型 Abstract With the continuous development of the international economy, economic globalization has become a general trend, and the foreign direct investment behavior of transnational corporations has become an important part of the global economy. A large part of Chinas foreign direct investment is concentrated in Southeast Asia. Many scholars at home and abroad have conducted research on Chinas direct investment in the Greater Mekong Sub-region and ASEAN, and have drawn some conclusions, which are of great significance for guiding practice. However, only a few people analyze from the perspective of a certain country, and there are few studies on Thailand. Therefore, the issues related to Chinas direct investment in Thailand deserve our exploration. After elaborating on the current situation of Chinas direct investment in Thailand, this paper further explores the effects of Chinas direct investment in Thailand. Among them, the creation effect is significant, the transfer effect is unstable, and the trade effect and reverse technology spillover effect are not significant. Afterwards, the factors influencing Chinas