这是巴阿克 - 20世纪20年代的通货膨胀和非利尼尔菲利普斯曲线的回归 It’s Baaack - The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non－Linear Phillips Curve.docxVIP

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这是巴阿克 - 20世纪20年代的通货膨胀和非利尼尔菲利普斯曲线的回归 It’s Baaack - The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non－Linear Phillips Curve.docx

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NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES IT’S BAAACK: THE SURGE IN INFLATION IN THE 2020S AND THE RETURN OF THE NON-LINEAR PHILLIPS CURVE Pierpaolo Benigno Gauti B. Eggertsson Working Paper 31197 /papers/w31197 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 April 2023 We are grateful to Luca Benati, Don Kohn, Pascal Michaillat, Emi Nakamura and Chris Sims for helpful discussions and suggestions, to seminar participants at UPF-CREI, EFIP and Brown, and to GaOn Kim for providing excellent research assistance. We have no financial relationships to declare. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. ? 2023 by Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti B. Eggertsson. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including ? notice, is given to the source. It’s Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti B. Eggertsson NBER Working Paper No. 31197 April 2023 JEL No. E12,E3,E30,E40,E50,E60 ABSTRACT This paper proposes a non-linear New Keynesian Phillips curve (Inv-L NK Phillips Curve) to explain the surge of inflation in the 2020s. Economic slack is measured as firms job vacancies over the number of unemployed workers. After showing empirical evidence of statistically significant nonlinearities, we propose a New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions, complemented by a form of wage rigidity, in the spirit of Phillips (1958), that generates strong nonlinearities. Policy implications include the thesis that appropriate monetary policy can bring inflation down withou