全国农业气象灾害的评估与区划.docxVIP

全国农业气象灾害的评估与区划 全国农业气象灾害的评估与区划 　　中图分类号：S42文献标识码：A文章编号：0439-8114〔2022〕10-2299-05　　Evaluation and Regionalization of the Agriculture Meteorological Disasters in China　　ZHOU Zhao-Ji，WANG Qian　　〔College of Economics and Management， Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology， Nanjing 210044， China〕　　Abstract： Based on the data of grain yield， disaster area and sown area from 1986 to 2022， the comprehensive risk evaluation model of meteorological disaster index was constructed. Meteorological disaster risks were assessed and zoned by GIS. Based on the meteorological disaster on grain yield， combining with the MATLAB algorithm and two exponential smoothing methods， the loss grain yield of 2022 caused by meteorological disasters was predicted. Results showed that meteorological disaster risk of grain production in eastern China was less than that in Western China， Southern China less than northern China. Jiangsu and Shanghai had the lowest comprehensive risk index， with value between 0 and 1. The number of meteorological disasters in these places was less， with slight disaster and stable grain yield. Zhejiang， Fujian and other places in the comprehensive risk index was between 1.0～2.5 which was belongs to high risk. Guizhou， Inner Mongolia and other places had serious disasters with strong impact on food production and was belonged to high risk area. Tibet， Hainan and other places had the highest risk. The prediction of grain yield showed Hunan， Liaoning， Hebei，Hubei and Sichuan had the most loss of grain caused by disasters， reaching more than 6.0×106 tons.　　Key words： grain yield； comprehensive risk index； risk assessment and zoning； two exponential smoothing method； GIS　　基金工程：国家公益性行业〔气象〕科研专项〔GYHY202206019〕　　中国是一个气象灾害种类繁多的国家，主要有干旱、台风、暴雨、热带气旋、寒潮、冰雹、冷冻、雪灾、热浪、沙尘暴、浓雾等气象灾害，其中干旱、台风、暴雨、寒潮对中国农业的危害影响范围最广，灾情最严重。灾害的发生导致农作物大面积减产、降质甚至绝收，人民生命财产等遭到重大损失，不仅影响农业持续开展和农民生活水平的提高，而且影响国民经济的开展。示例，1972年特大干旱年，重旱区京、津、晋、陕北、辽西干旱持续时间最长，不少河流断流，水库干涸；黄河在济南下列断流20 d，秋收作物受灾严重，有的甚至绝收。全国