债券交易员押注美联储救助模式-彭博.pdf

Markets市场

BondTradersBetBigontheFed

LaunchingIntoRescueMode

债券交易员对美联储启动救助模式押注巨⼤

Jobsdatastokesworriesthecentralbankhaswaitedtoo

long

就业数据引发了⼈们对央⾏等待太久的担忧

Traderspriceinaseriesofdeepcutsthroughendofyear

交易员对到年底的⼀系列⼤幅降价进⾏了定价

FearsofaslowingeconomyandFederalReservedelayshavecontributedtoa

sharpselloffinUSstockslastweek.Photographer:AlDrago/Bloomberg

对经济放缓和美联储拖延的担忧导致上周美国股市⼤幅抛售。摄影师：Al

Drago/Bloomberg

ByMichaelMackenzieandLizCapoMcCormick

作者：MichaelMackenzie和LizCapoMcCormick

2024年8⽉5⽇atGMT+803:00

8⽉5，2024在GMT+803：00

Updatedon2024年8⽉5⽇atGMT+805:51

于2024年8⽉5⽇atGMT+805:51更新

BondtradersarepilingintobetsthattheUSeconomyis

onthevergeofdeterioratingsoquicklythattheFederal

Reservewillneedtostarteasingmonetarypolicy

aggressivelytoheadoffarecession.

债券交易员纷纷押注美国经济正处于迅速恶化的边缘，以

⾄于美联储将需要开始积极放松货币政策以阻⽌经济衰

退。

Previousworriesabouttheriskofelevatedinflationhave

virtuallydisappeared,swiftlygivingwaytospeculation

thatgrowthwillstallunlessthecentralbankstarts

pullinginterestratesdownfromamorethantwo-

decadehigh.

此前对通胀⾼企风险的担忧⼏乎消失了，迅速让位于对经

济增长将停滞的猜测，除⾮央⾏开始将利率从⼆⼗多年的

⾼位下调。

Thatisfuelingoneofthebiggestbond-marketrallies

sincefearsofabankingcrisisflaredinMarch2023.The

advancehasbeensostrongthatthepolicysensitivetwo-

yearTreasuryyieldtumbledlastweekbyhalfa

percentagepointtolessthan3.9%.Ithasn’tbeenthatfar

belowtheFed’sbenchmarkrate—nowaround5.3%—

sincetheglobalfinancialcrisisortheaftermathofthe

dot-comcrash.

这助长了⾃2023年3⽉对银⾏业危机的担忧爆发以来最

⼤的债券市场反弹之⼀。涨势如此强劲，以⾄于对政策敏

感的两年期美国国债收益率上周下跌了半个百分点，⾄不

到3.9%。⾃全球⾦融危机或互联⽹泡沫破灭以来，它并没

有远低于美联储的基准利率——⽬前约为5.3%。

“ThemarketconcernisthattheFedislaggingandthat

wearemorphingfromasoftlandingtoahardlanding,”

saidTracyChen,aportfoliomanageratBrandywine

GlobalInvestmentManage