基于蒙特卡洛和连锁故障的停电风险评估.docx

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基于蒙特卡洛和连锁故障的停电风险评估

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林平李怡然李衍川李金湖

摘要：智能化电网的快速建设，增加了电网的不确定性并提高了大面积停电的概率，为此，提出了基于蒙特卡洛和连锁故障停电模型（MonteCarloandCascadingFailureBlackoutModel，MC-CFBM）的停电风险评估方法，以制定相应的停电预防和控制策略。建立了连锁故障停电模型，包括继保装置的隐性故障模型，基于直流潮流的最小切负荷模型，连锁故行停电模型。在连锁故障停电模型的基础上，建立了MC-CFBM的停电风险评估方法，能够准确的得到短时间停电数据。基于简单随机采样法的MC方法提高了算法的收敛速度。建立了系统风险指标，支路风险指标和N-1风险指标等用于评估停电风险的方法。实验仿真结果验证了所提MC-CFBM收敛速度较快，具有可靠性;建立的停电风险指标能够准确描述停电风险，为停电预防和制定相应的控制策略提供了理论指导。

关键词：蒙特卡洛方法;连锁故障停电模型;风险评估

：TM73文献标志码：A

PowerFailureRiskAssessmentMethodBasedonMC-CFBM

LINPing1，LIYiran1，LIYanchuan2，LIJinhu3

（1.StateGridFujianElectricPowerCo.，Ltd.，Fuzhou，Fujian350000，China;2.FujianElectricPowerResearchInstitute，

Fuzhou，Fujian350000，China;3.StateGridXintongYiliTechnologyCo.Ltd.，Fuzhou，Fujian350000，China）

Abstract：Therapidconstructionofintelligentpowergridincreasestheuncertaintyofpowergridandincreasestheprobabilityoflarge-scaleblackout.Therefore，ablackoutriskassessmentmethodbasedonMonteCarloandcascadingfailureblackoutmodel（MC-CFBM）isproposedtodevelopcorrespondingblackoutpreventionandcontrolstrategies.Aninterlockingfailuremodelisestablished，includingtherecessivefailuremodelofrelayprotectiondevice，theminimumloadcuttingmodelbasedondcpowerflow，andtheinterlockingfailuremodel.Onthebasisofthechain-failureblackoutmodel，theMC-CFBMblackoutriskassessmentmethodisestablished，whichcanaccuratelyobtaintheshort-timeblackoutdata.MCmethodbasedonsimplerandomsamplingmethodimprovestheconvergencespeedofthealgorithm.Thesystemriskindex，branchriskindexandN-1riskindexareestablished.ExperimentalsimulationresultsverifythattheproposedMC-CFBMhasfastconvergencespeedandreliability.Theestablishedpowerfailureriskindexcanaccuratelydescribethepowerfailureriskandprovidetheoreticalguidanceforpowerfailurepreventionandcorrespondingcontrolstrategies.

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